EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The Year in Review
In what started as grumbles from the business community and the public about tax measures in the Finance Bill 2024, the concerns culminated into a full-fledged political tsunami which took away over half the cabinet in generational led economic protests and the bill ditched entirely. The year also saw the impeachment of the Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua and a new replacement, Professor Kithure Kindiki sworn in. In this report, we do a postmortem of the events leading up to the Gen Z protests and the ramifications that it brought about.
Unlike previous protests, the Gen Z demonstrations exhibited significant literacy and awareness. This comes as no surprise, given that this generation benefited from the free primary education (FPE) policy introduced by the late President Mwai Kibaki in 2003 (Third President of Kenya). This policy, a fulfilment of Kibaki’s campaign promises, aimed to eliminate the financial barriers that had previously restricted access to education, resulting in high dropout rates and low enrolment numbers.
The introduction of FPE led to a dramatic increase in enrolment, with the number of pupils rising from approximately 5.9 million in 2002 to over 7.2 million in 2003, and further to about 8.2 million by 2007. This population joined the job market at a time when the country is facing significant headwinds in jobs, leading to a more anxious generation keen to see improvements.
The best laid schemes of mice and men go often askew (“To a Mouse, on Turning Her Up in Her Nest with the Plough, November, 1785” by Robert Burns); is what can be described as the fate of the Kenya Kwanza administration. We ponder the aim was to try and frontload difficult policies early in the electoral cycle and believe the next couple of years will be aimed at achieving the manifesto objectives, seeking redemption from voters and forgiveness for the sins that have been made.
Did Kenya Government Implement Public Policies out of the Overton Window?
We think The Overton Window of Political Possibility may help explain why the Kenya-Kwanza administration stumbled on some of the policy measures proposed and implemented. The Kenya Kwanza administration had a well-articulated manifesto, but few expected that they would actually achieve or attempt to tackle all the promises made almost at the same time. Further, the regime had some proposals which bordered on radical in the context of social-economic background of Kenya.
The manifesto mentioned in passing or was quiet on the funding models for the campaign promises, which may have created an impression of a Santa Claus administration which would shower voters with freebies over the course of their tenure.
Bottom-up Policies – is the administration going to fall on its own sword?
After a spirited electioneering period, Dr William Ruto was sworn in as the 5th President of the Republic of Kenya on 13th September 2022 – winning for the first time on an economic empowerment platform. In Kenya, elections have been largely won (or lost) on the basis of political liberation and social justice. In principle, the focus on increasing disposable income and lifting millions from poverty has been taunted as likely to be good for both big and small businesses.
Year after year, we have diligently crafted reports on the budget and economy, tracking progress and highlighting concerns about public finances. Below is a brief of our reflections in recent years;
We contend that the Kenya Kwanza administration was not entirely oblivious of some sort of pushback with some of the measures they were implementing. It seemed they believed the popular mandate received would not dissipate as quickly early in the election cycle, and that they could recover after showing results. Altercations around tax measures in Finance Bill are not new – In 2018, President Uhuru Kenyatta (Fourth President of Kenya) overruled Parliament with regards to proposed tax measurers noting that the House had failed in its leadership after it failed to pass certain tax measures. This was right after the 2017 elections. Kenyan politicians have proven to have robust survival mechanisms and have managed to overcome challenges and avert crisis, year after year. Will the current administration fall on its own sword of not delivering on its electoral promises?
Elements of a Revolution – How the Economic Protests Unfolded
Kenya’s presidential elections are consistently tight races, highlighting a deeply divided electorate with strong support for multiple political ideologies. The fierce competition means even minor shifts in voter preferences can significantly impact the outcome. See the chart below;
Kenyan politics is always noisy and politicians are a crafty lot that have a good sense to horse trade when there is a crisis. The close races have left winning candidates with weaker mandates, making effective governance and agenda implementation challenging. This has necessitated greater bipartisanship and coalition-building. Polarization has often made Kenyans difficult to govern, frequently resulting in protests and demonstrations over alleged election irregularities. In fact, dissatisfaction with election results has long been a catalyst for unrest, with nearly half the country often feeling discontented.
Kenya had all the making of a full-blown revolution. Borrowing from James Defronzo’s Theory of Revolutions, a number of key elements applied.
Kenya did not take the full course of a revolution since the political elites made a settlement which incorporated the opposition into government, essentially fizzling out the protests.
